In the aftermath of yesterday’s 3-0 loss to Zenit St. Petersburg, the internet has had plenty of thoughts about who the blame for Celtic’s form this season. These thoughts range from lukewarm to spicy hot, such as seeing on one Celtic message board say that “Brendan Rodgers is a fraud”. Regardless, Celtic supporters have had numerous ideas on who to blame for the result in Russia last night.
One of those facing the brunt of the blame for both last night and Celtic’s form dipping this year compared to last is Mikael Lustig. The 31 year old Swedish fullback is in his seventh year at Celtic and has become a cult hero for much of the Celtic fan base. However, it seems the Swede has seem his form dip this year. Before this season, the right back was one of the more consistent players for the Bhoys, but from observation it seems Lustig has not played as well as he has most of his Celtic career.
The above map was created by Dougie Wright and shows where the chances created against Celtic have come from in league play. The darker the green is on the heat map, the more chances have come from that area. It becomes pretty clear that teams in the SPFL see Lustig as a weakness in the Celtic back-line and are trying to expose the area he patrols.
And if we look at the numbers for both the Celtic defense and the rest of the league, we see that to be the case. In the above table, we have the number of Key Passes (or the pass that set up a shot) teams concede on the right wing, the percentage of total key passes a team concedes that comes from the right wing, that percentage of key passes from the right wing compared to the league average, the expected goals from key passes conceded on the right wing, the percentage of a team’s xG conceded that came from key passes on the right wing, and how that percentage compares to league average.
As we see, the numbers are not kind to Mikael Lustig this season. Though Celtic have conceded about the average number of key passes from the right wing, they have conceded easily the highest percentage of the key passes coming from the right wing. 28.57% of the shots Celtic have allowed originated from a pass on the wing Lustig usually patrols, which is 12.21% higher than league average.
Celtic have also conceded by far the highest xG in the SPFL from key passes from the right wing at 5.07, which is 37.62% of their total. This is 22.03% higher than the average in the SPFL. The next highest percentage of xG conceded from Key Passes on the right is 17% less than what Celtic have conceded. Teams have clearly pinpointed Mikael Lustig and the right side of Celtic’s back line as the area to attack and these numbers show that they have clearly been able to do that.
Celtic’s recruitment strategy has been one of the more common places most have put blame for the result in St. Petersburg. Some have asked why a replacement for Lustig was not found either in the summer or January transfer market. Brendan Rodgers has been reluctant to play Christian Gamboa this season, meaning Mikael Lustig has played a lot of football this season. Both by observation and numbers have suggested that Lustig has struggled this season. Perhaps the high number of minutes he has played both for Celtic and Sweden has caused this dip of form, but if this continues Celtic will have no choice but to look for a replacement for the long serving Mikael Lustig.
This article was written with the aid of StrataData, which is property of Stratagem Technologies. StrataData powers the StrataBet Sports Trading Platform, in addition to StrataBet Premium Recommendations.